Guide to Recent Climate Products
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US
Drought Monitor
The Year 2003 in Review
Climate Forecast for Spring 2004
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Long term drought continues in most (56%) of the
West, the northern Great Plains and northern tributaries of the Mississippi
River. Exceptional drought, the highest category, prevails in
southern New Mexico, eastern Idaho and parts of Montana. With recent
snowfall in the upper Midwest, drought has eased there. Heavy above-average
snowfall in Idaho and Montana has improved the drought situation by
one category there.
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The oblong region in the Great Plains within the heavy white curve is where the drought has had a dominant impact on agriculture. Elsewhere in the colored regions, the main impact has been on water supply and rivers. The National Drought Mitigation Center at the University
of Nebraska at Lincoln regularly releases the Drought Monitor, in cooperation
with the US Department of Agriculture and National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA). This product may be viewed at http://drought.unl.edu/dm
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The National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, North Carolina, released a review of the temperature and precipitation of 2003. Last year's precipitation pattern, shown above, deserves comment. All states east of the Mississippi, except Maine, were wetter than normal in 2003, as seen in the accompanying map of precipitation. North Carolina, Virginia, and Maryland experienced a record wet year in 2003. In contrast, the Midwest and West suffered another year of dry conditions. New Mexico had only 9 inches of precipitation. About 31 percent of the lower 48 United States continued in moderate to extreme drought. The Nation lived through three weather disasters in the billion-dollar-plus category. Wildfires sparked by drought and high winds caused 22 deaths and $2.5 billion in damages in California in October - November. Hurricane Isabel, the first hurricane to enter the East Coast since 1999, led to 47 deaths and $4 billion in damages. Tornadoes in early May in the Midwest and South caused 41 deaths and $3.1 billion in costs, |
and set an all time record for the number of tornadoes (400) in one week. Globally, the average temperature at the surface ranked 2003 as the second warmest year since 1880 (the year was tied with 2002). In the lower atmosphere, from the surface to 8 km (5 miles), the year 2003 was the third warmest since global satellite observations began in 1979. The National Snow and Ice Data Center reported that for a second year, the extent of sea ice in the Arctic was extremely low. Over 14,000 people died in Europe from heat-related causes during July and August, as England and France set all-time temperature records. For more information, see the National Climatic Data Center . |
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Climate Forecast for Spring 2004
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The US Climate Prediction Center considers a warm Spring likely in most of the West, from Oregon to the US - Mexican border (see forecast map above), in March, April, and May. Within the reddest zone, in Arizona, the chances that Spring will be warmer than normal, rather than near-normal or cooler, exceed 70%. In the blue-toned region on the Montana - Dakotas border, meanwhile, a cool spring is more likely than a warm spring.
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Long term trends were the primary basis of this forecast. Although a precipitation forecast is not shown here, the Center expects a somewhat dry Spring in California and Nevada, and the Florida peninsula. For a complete suite of forecasts, see the Climate Prediction Center page on seasonal predictions . |
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