What Climate Prediction Models Still Cannot Do: An Expert Speaks Out

Dr. Robert E. Livezey takes personal pride in two bold climate forecasts that the Climate Prediction Center put out. One was their confident prediction (six months in advance) that El Niño would cause unusual winter conditions in 1997-98, and the largely correct pattern of specific impacts in different parts of the country. Our forecasts were unprecedented, and the scores for their accuracy set new records. The other was a bold prediction made during the coldest deep freeze in Washingtonian memory when the Potomac River froze over in December 1989. In front of top policy makers, he stood firm on their earlier forecast that the winter as a whole would be warm. Two months later, he was seen to be right.
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Contents

• Unprecedented Breakup of Antarctic Ice Sheets
• Pity the Poor Policy Planners
• Religious Organizations Enter Climate Change Debate
• Climate Briefs:
  • Sea Ice Melts Away in the North While It Expands in the South
  • Yet Another Gas Having Climatic Effects
  • Amazon Wetlands May Be a Source, Not a Sink, of CO₂
  • US Vegetation Absorbing a Lot of Carbon The reason? There's more rain!
  • No Trend Found in Climate Variability
• Volcanic Eruption in 1991 Sheds Light on Sensitivity of Climate to Water Vapor
• Forests That Now Absorb Carbon Dioxide May Not Do So in Future
• FORUM: Should We Deal with Air Pollutants First and Carbon Dioxide Later?
• New US Statement on Its Role in Climate Change
• How Arctic Climate Change Has Rapidly Freshened Deep Atlantic Waters
• El Niño Effects on US to Begin in Autumn