The El Niño that began to develop last January is developing slowly. According to the US Climate Prediction Center, the effects will be felt this autumn and winter in the same states that bore the brunt of El Niño in 1998. The Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies are expected to have a very warm winter and to suffer continued drought; Montana, especially, will have a drought. Meanwhile, the South, from Texas to the Carolinas, is predicted to have a wet, cool winter and spring. There is one promising note: California and Arizona tend to have wet winters during strong El Niños; but because this El Niño is weak, the Climate Prediction Center is predicting a normal winter in these states.

See predictions at www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions.

This map shows likely seasonal changes through September 2002. Only major trends are predicted, as short-term events, such as individual storms, cannot be accurately forecast more than a few days in advance.

Source: US Climate Prediction Center

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