Monitoring the Climate
Current Drought Situation in the US
Climate Forecasts for Summer and Autumn 2004
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| The multi-year drought continues in the American West. The area of extreme drought has expanded into Wyoming, and persists in much of Montana, most of Arizona, and parts of Nevada and Utah. Exceptionally severe drought continues in eastern Idaho. Since the western US drought results from meager snowfall last winter, relief is not expected until after next winter. The area of severe drought has expanded in Georgia. Heavy rains have lifted the threat of drought in Florida and on the Gulf Coast. The southeast is expected to see relief from drought by the end of August. |
Heavy spring rainfall has ended threat of a drought in much of the Midwest. However, the threat persists in Oklahoma, western Kansas and west Texas. The National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska at Lincoln publishes the Drought Monitor at this site, in cooperation with the US Department of Agriculture and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). |
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Active Hurricane Season Expected
| The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is forecasting above normal hurricane activity this year in the Atlantic, in their forecast released in May. The team of 7 scientists expect 12 to 15 tropical storms, of which 6 to 8 will be hurricanes, and 2 to 4 of these will be major hurricanes. | This continues the above normal activity that began in 1995. The probability that the season will be active is 50%, while the probability that it will be “near-normal” is 40%. The full press release is available from NOAA. |
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Forecasts for Summer and Autumn 2004
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| Above: Probability of higher-than-normal temperatures this June, July, and August. Orange regions (A) are likely to be warmer than normal. “EC” indicates “Equal Chances” for above and below normal temperatures. |
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Unfortunately, for those who like cool weather, persistent cool weather is not expected in any part of the US this summer. According to the US Climate Prediction Center, warmer than normal conditions are expected in the colored regions on the above map, including most of the US east of the Mississippi, and most of the Western states. Only the Midwest is forecast to have “equal chances” (EC) of above normal and below normal temperatures. The southern Appalachian mountains and the Las Vegas area are the most likely regions to have a warmer summer than usual. The forecast period is June, July, and August 2004.
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In the upcoming autumn (September through November), the warm conditions are expected to persist only in the state of Arizona and adjacent lands, and extreme southern Florida. Autumn is expected to be wetter than normal in one part of the nation, in a region centered on Arkansas (green in the forecast map below). For a complete suite of climate forecasts, see the Climate Prediction Center page on seasonal predictions . |
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| Probability of above normal rainfall (green) in September, October, and November 2004. |